Valley Wells, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

314
FXUS65 KVEF 162341
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
341 PM PST Mon Feb 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A strong weather system will bring widespread precipitation, heavy
  mountain snow, and gusty winds to the region today.

* The weather pattern will remain active with a second, colder
  system moving through the region Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing
  additional rain and snow chances.

* Drier conditions will return over the weekend with temperatures
  trending closer to normal by Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Sunday.

A closed area of low pressure just off the central California Coast
will glide southward and weaken into an open wave as it pushes
inland through the day today. This system will increase PWATs across
the region to over 200 percent of normal, bringing along with it
very high precipitation chances for the entire forecast area.
Rainfall has begun in our western zones this afternoon and will
continue to creep eastward through the day. Greatest rainfall rates
will occur across the area between 12pm and 9pm PST, with snow
levels starting out around 7000 feet and falling through the day
(winter-related headlines for the eastern Sierra slopes, White
Mountains, Spring Mountains, Sheep Range, and the southern Great
Basin above 5000 feet). This evening between 5pm and 8pm PST, the
greatest precipitation rates are expected in the Spring Mountains as
a result of south-southwesterly winds providing productive
orographic enhancement. Kyle and Lee Canyons can expect between 8
and 14 inches of snow in a 12-hour period. These heavy rain rates
will combine with strong gusty winds, which would reduce
visibilities. Additionally, 1-3 inches are possible along Highway
160 through Mountain Springs. Finally, cannot rule out a dusting on
Interstate 15 at Mountain Pass. In addition to precipitation, this
system will bring with it strong, gusty south winds. Wind Advisories
are in effect for many locations across the Mojave Desert and
southwestern Great Basin today, with south-southwest wind gusts
between 40 and 50 mph (greater speeds in the higher terrain). Both
precipitation and wind speeds will subside overnight tonight.

Another cooler closed low will glide along the northern California
coast Tuesday into Wednesday, which will bring another round of
precipitation and gusty south winds to the region - but with lower
snow levels. Rainfall amounts Tuesday night through Wednesday will
be similar as expected today (0.15-0.25" in the valleys). Snow
levels will start out around 4500 feet and will rapidly drop to 1500
feet across the southwestern Great Basin and to 2500-3000 feet
across the Mojave Desert. This will bring another round of snowfall
to Inyo, Esmeralda, central Nye, Lincoln, and Clark county
mountains. Mountainous areas can expect similar accumulations as
today (measured in feet in the Sierra, and 8-14 inches in the Spring
Mountains), with lower elevation accumulations in locations such as
Interstate 15 through Mountain Pass (2-3 inches), Interstate 40
through Fort Rock (1-2 inches), and Red Rock Scenic Loop (1-2
inches). Wind speeds will be similar as today, if not slightly
higher Tuesday night and Wednesday, with south-southwest wind gusts
between 45 and 55 mph (greater speeds in the higher terrain). Cannot
rule out the sight of flurries across portions of the Las Vegas
Valley Wednesday morning, with best chances in higher elevations of
Centennial Hills and Summerlin.

A final shortwave pushes through the southern Great Basin on
Thursday, returning moderate (40-50%) chances of another round of
precipitation across the region (snow levels 3000-4000 feet). Skies
clear and temperatures warm up through the weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Flight
conditions will continue deteriorating this evening. Southeasterly
winds gusting to 30-35KT will continue early in the period before
veering to the south and southwest, with gusts increasing to
around 40KT through late evening. Moderate to heavy snow in
surrounding mountains will yield persistent terrain obscuration,
with ceilings in the Valley dropping to 5-6kft through this
evening. An enhanced band of showers is expected after 01Z,
producing brief reductions in ceilings to around 3-4kft and
visibility to around 5SM, though there is some uncertainty
regarding the magnitude of these reductions. Improvement is
expected late evening and overnight as the band moves east and
showers dissipate. Winds remain elevated/gusty out of the
southwest thereafter with gusts to 25-35KT common, and ceilings in
the Valley slowly improving to around 10-15kft. Southwesterly
winds will increase, gusting to 45-48KT for a few hours during
the afternoon Tuesday, slowly decreasing late in the period.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Deteriorating flight
conditions will continue through late evening, with terrain
obscuration expected due to high elevation moderate to heavy snow,
and lower elevation rains that will continue spreading across the
area from west to east. Ceilings will gradually fall to around
5-8kft, with winds veering to the south and southwest gusting to
around 35KT for most, stronger gusts to around 40-45KT expected
across southern Nevada and into northwestern Arizona during the
evening as an enhanced band of showers moves eastward, accompanied
by brief further reductions in ceilings and visibility.
Conditions will gradually improve from west to east overnight as
showers drift east and ceilings improve in their wake. Winds this
evening onward will generally remain southwesterly for all but the
Owens and Colorado River Valleys, where southeasterly winds will
be the rule, with at least intermittent gusts to 20-30KT expected.
After the band of showers tonight, most lower elevations will see
a lull for the remainder of the forecast period with the
exception of the Owens Valley/KBIH, where spillover precipitation
from the Sierra will change to snow by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Phillipson

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